all very good points Ugly I guess the roundabout way of saying it, from my POV then, is that if you truly CAN'T afford decent marketing (and have that knowhow) then the reality is that you are looking at quite a along shot. Wasting money on marketing when you don't know what you are doing (or even if you "kinda think you do") is exactly that. Putting that $$ instead towards some polish, as you suggest, is probably not the worst idea in the world - but still, I'll maintain that there's gonna continue to be more and more steadily competitive "higher-polished apps" to compete with and therefore keep many people back at square one all over again. there's still a very strong sentiment about that "if you make a high-quality app, then you WILL get some degree of success" and while it certainly does help your chances, all other things being equal it's still quite an uphill battle, and as this scene keeps growing, more and more that is the case.
no.. there is no gurantee for anything.. but the appstore is about look, icon, screenshot are the first thing anyone is looking at.. if they don't show something polished it will be hard to sell it.. then your luck would be with reviews sites to catch the "gem" out of the river or apps.. at the end any business one runs himself is a uphill battle.. if your employed someone else gets their brain pumping how to keep things going as a final note to the original question.. the goldrush is over.. becoming millionaire in the appstore is as slim as winning the lotterie.. but like in any competitive market you can earn some money if you work hard AND! offer quality. good luck to everyone